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OPS STAND-DOWN

UFN, OPERATIONS SUSPENDED

Tropics Watch 03 SEP

Tropical Storm Maria continues to spin harmlessly in the mid-Atlantic and will probably become a hurricane by tomorrow.

A few of the global computer models are suggesting that an area of disturbed weather that is currently east of the Bahamas will become organized over the next few days and head to the northwest and north such that there would be a tropical cyclone in the vicinity of the Carolinas in five or six days. NHC will be watching this carefully over the next couple of days to see whether the models' forecasts verify.

The low that's moving west on the northern fringe of the ITCZ and had been considered a candidate for tropical cyclone formation continues to show no signs of development. It is of no concern for the next couple of days.

Tropics Watch 02 Sep

Tropical Depression Fourteen was upgraded to Tropical Storm Maria with the 11 AM advisory package. 880 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, it is not a threat to land as it is forecast to turn to the northwest and pass well east of Bermuda.

The last advisory on Tropical Depression Lee was released at 11 PM last night. Shear killed off the former tropical storm that was in the mid-Atlantic.

The low pressure center mentioned yesterday(that is in the general vicinity of where the tropical depression that became Ivan formed a year ago today) has looked progressively worse over the past 24 hours. It is not expected to develop any time soon, if it all.

Tropics Watch Sep 01

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center released its last advisory on Katrina last night, stating that her remnants had been absorbed into a frontal boundary in southeastern Canada.

In the mid-Atlantic, Tropical Depression Lee is spinning, but is not a threat to land and is barely an annoyance to ships. The streak of earliest named storms came to an end as it formed one day later than the earliest twelfth named storm on record (Hurricane Luis of 1995).

Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed about 1000 miles west of the Leeward Islands. Given how north it is relative to its longitude (18.8 North at 45.5 West), it is very unlikely to be a threat to the U.S. National Hurricane Center advisory packages will commence at 11 AM EDT.

Much further south and east, a low near the Intertropical Convergence Zone has the potential to become a Tropical Depression during the next couple of days. While it is often difficult for such low-running storms to develop, this will have to be watched carefully since Ivan of last year was such a storm.