Eye of the Storm

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Friday, August 26, 2005

Hurricane Katrina Update 270300Z

At 11 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Katrina was at 24.6 North 83.6 West, 460 miles southeast of the Mississippi River and headed to the west-southwest at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are an estimated 105 mph and minimum central pressure is estimated to be 965 millibars (28.50").

Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 15

Katrina's appearance on satellite continues to improve as Katrina is taking on a text-book appearance. Two of the three agencies that provide intensity estimates estimated a wind speed of 104 mph, so the intensity is set at 105 mph. A recon plane will be flying into the hurricane later tonight. Conditions are extremely favorable for intensification and the intensity forecast brings Katrina to category four strength (130 mph) winds, but this is lower than being suggested by the FSU Superensemble, which brings Katrina's winds up to 150 mph before landfall.

Katrina continues to move to the southwest. Data from the upper-air surveillance jet suggests that the high continues to be very strong. However, a weakness is expected to form in it that will allow a turn to the north, allowing Katrina to find her way to the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 48 hours or so. Computer model guidance is tightly clustered, which boosts the forecaster's confidence in his prediction.

Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 15

Official forecast track


Residents of coastal southeast Louisana, Missippi, and western Alabama need to start taking action tomorrow morning to prepare for the arrival of what will be a dangerous hurricane. Due to the warming of the Gulf of Mexico that has taken place throughout the summer, there is far more fuel for the hurricane as it approaches the coast. Dennis ran out of gas as it were during his last hours ashore. This is much less likely to be the case for Katrina as deep warm waters extend almost all the way to land.


At 12:15 AM, Blogger Brendan said...

I think you mean "during his last hours offshore." :)


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