Back at home
With my laptop now repaired, return to primary site: http://radio.weblogs.com/0131089
backup for http://radio.weblogs.com/0131089/
Tropical Storm Maria continues to spin harmlessly in the mid-Atlantic and will probably become a hurricane by tomorrow.
Tropical Depression Fourteen was upgraded to Tropical Storm Maria with the 11 AM advisory package. 880 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, it is not a threat to land as it is forecast to turn to the northwest and pass well east of Bermuda.
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center released its last advisory on Katrina last night, stating that her remnants had been absorbed into a frontal boundary in southeastern Canada.
Thought I would follow up on my comments from Sunday (on the 12 and 24 hour pre-landfall forecast positions from Charley and Ivan) with how the forecasts fared this time around. 24 hours out, the forecast position for 12Z (7 AM CDT) was 29.1 North 89.6 West. 12 hours out, the forecast was 29.2 N 89.7 W. Actual position was 29.5 North 89.6 West., yielding errors of 24 and 23 nautical miles, respectively.
For about as long as I've followed hurricanes, I've always had a bit of an odd feeling after landfall. Something on the order of 'Well, it's out of our hands now', as if forecasters somehow controlled or dropped responsibility for the storm the moment of the center of the eye crossed land. Such was my feeling today.
Last post from Orlando. Next will be from Tallahassee in a few hours, pending computer availability. Brendan Loy should be up and blogging again soon.
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
One thing frequently mentioned in discussion from the NHC about intense hurricanes is that they are prone to fluctuations in intensity such that category five strength is not held for a long period of time. The exception to this is a special classification called an anular hurricane. Such hurricanes do not fluctuate as rapidly. The most recent case was Ivan, which retained category five status for 30 consecutive hours.
WTNT62 KNHC 281117
At 4 AM CDT, the center of extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina was at 25.4 North 87.4 West, 275 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph with a turn to the northwest. Winds are up to 145 mph and minimum central pressure is 935 millibars (27.61")
At 1 AM CDT , the center of extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina was at 25.1 North 86.8 West, 310 miles south-southeast of the Mississippi River and moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph with a turn to the northwest expected later today. Maximum sustained winds are up to 145 mph, which makes Katrina a category four on the Saffir Simpson-scale. Minimum central pressure has fallen to 935 millibars (27.61"). Hurricane force winds extend up to 70 miles from the center and rains from the storm will start to affect the gulf coast on Sunday evening.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND PERHAPS EVEN REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS